Legacy income may be 2% higher over the next five years than predicted earlier this year, due to an expected increase in the death rate, Legacy Foresight has said.
Legacy Foresight has adjusted its figures in line with the latest biennial population projections from the Office of National Statistics, which is now predicting a significant increase in the number of deaths in the next five years. The ONS’s latest figures include projected deaths to 2049/50 and represent a significant uplift on its previous death projections, produced in 2015. Compared to those forecasts, it is now predicting 5% more deaths over the next five years, meaning a total of 3 million deaths from 2017/18 to 2021/22, which is up by 140,000 on previous estimates.
According to Legacy Foresight, the increase means that over the next five years both the number of charitable bequests and overall legacy income will be 2% higher than it predicted in summer 2017. It is now anticipating 640,000 charitable bequests from 2017 to 2021, worth a total of £15.6bn to UK charities.
Tim Yates, Analyst at Legacy Foresight said:
“As part of our ongoing market analysis and forecasts, we had already anticipated an upward revision in the number of deaths. Our estimates were relatively cautious, and the new ONS projections are 2% higher than our own forecasted figures.
“The new figures pose vital questions about the many possible reasons why death numbers are expected to rise to this extent. We will continue to look into why the projections have changed so greatly and what it means for our legacy market projections over the next five years.”
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