Slow growth for legacy income but long-term outlook remains positive
Melanie May | 20 November 2024 | News
Legacy income reached £4.1 billion in 2023/24 – just a 1.3% increase on the previous year, but a sign of its continuing resilience, according to Legacy Future’s Legacy Market Review.
The Legacy Market Review is an annual benchmarking research programme gathering data from over 80 charities, which account for almost 50% of the charity legacy market.
Contributing factors to slow growth
The Review highlights a number of factors impacting legacy income: a slight decline in bequests, minimal increase in average bequest value, and continuing challenges from probate delays.
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2023/24 saw a lower-than-expected death rate of 643,400, which led to a reduction in bequest numbers of -0.8% on the previous year. In comparison, the death rate was 721,500 in 2020/21, and 681,500 in 2022/23.
House prices played a role in subduing the average legacy value to £28,900. This was a growth of just 0.4% on the previous year, and significantly below the long-term annual average growth of 3.1% since recording began in 1994.
Looking at probate delays, the Review notes that in August 2023, the backlog at His Majesty’s Courts and Tribunals Service (HMCTS) peaked at nearly 70,000 pending bequests. This was equivalent to approximately £900 million – around a quarter of a year’s legacy income for the market. The backlog has since decreased to around 33,000 cases.
Inflation expected to impact value of legacy income – short-term outlook
The economic environment means legacy income is expected to hover around £4.1 billion annually over the next three years, with substantial growth forecast to resume around 2027/28. Inflationary pressures could also impact the value of legacy income in the short-term – adjusted for inflation, this is projected to decrease by over 6% between 2023/24 and 2026/27.
‘Increasingly positive’ – long-term outlook
Longer-term, the outlook is more promising as baby boomers approach typical legacy-giving age and house prices continue to rise. This means that by 2050, legacy income for UK charities is expected to exceed £10 billion annually, with Legacy Futures expecting it to provide ‘a secure and solid income stream to support charitable organisations for years to come’.
Commenting on the data, Ashley Rowthorn, CEO of Legacy Futures, said:
“The long-term outlook for legacy income is brighter than it has ever been, yet short-term challenges persist. While legacy income remains stable, inflation is impacting charities’ purchasing power, tightening budgets and cash flow. Charities must stay informed of the external drivers of legacy income to understand market influences on their performance and to plan effectively.
“The time is now; investing in legacy fundraising today will allow charities the time to build and secure a lasting income stream into the future as the market develops and grows — a strategy that will help them navigate economic uncertainties and sustain impact for decades.”
Lucinda Frostick, Director of Remember a Charity added:
“Legacies are an increasingly vital income stream for a growing number of charities, strengthening resilience and sustaining charitable work through challenging economic times. This is a reflection of the dedicated focus given to legacies over the years, both within charities individually and in working collectively. As we look to the future and consider the anticipated growth of the legacy market, it shows how crucial legacy fundraising will be to ensure a thriving charity sector and charitable services for years to come.”
About Melanie May
Melanie May is a journalist and copywriter specialising in writing both for and about the charity and marketing services sectors since 2001. She can be reached via thepurplepim.com.