# Legacy income forecast predicts rise to £3.26 billion by 2021

- Link: https://fundraising.co.uk/2017/09/28/legacy-income-forecast-predicts-rise-3-26bn-2021/
- Published: 2017-09-28T06:55:38+01:00
- Author: Melanie May

**Legacy income is expected to rise 2.7% over the next five years, to reach £3.26bn
by 2021, according to Legacy Foresight’s latest market forecast.**

Overall, [Legacy Foresight](http://www.legacyforesight.co.uk/) predicts that legacy
market growth will be considerably slower than in the five years leading up to the
Brexit referendum when annual growth rates averaged 6.5% p.a. After taking into 
account rising inflation, growth in real terms will be less than 1% p.a, it suggests.

Due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, Legacy Foresight has produced a range
of market forecasts for the next five-year period, from pessimistic to optimistic,
based on alternative economic scenarios.

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While the central scenario predicts 2.7% p.a. market growth over the next five years,
the pessimistic scenario, which assumes a ‘poor’ Brexit deal, suggests lower growth
of 0.9% p.a. At the other end of the spectrum, the optimistic scenario – which assumes
a far better Brexit deal and a better economic performance than in the central scenario–
suggests 4.2% p.a. market growth.

Based on this analysis, a ‘poor’ Brexit deal could result in UK legacy income being
£500m lower in 2021 than if Britain negotiates a ‘very good’ Brexit deal, with Legacy
Foresight predicting that a ‘poor’ Brexit will cost the sector £1.5bn in cumulative
legacy income over the next five years, compared to a ‘very good’ Brexit.

Chris Farmelo, Director at Legacy Foresight said:

> “The good news is that we do not expect to see a return to the situation following
> the global financial crisis in 2008 when sector incomes fell and then stagnated.
> In fact, the number of bequests received by UK charities is predicted to rise 
> over the coming years, due to the climbing death rate.”
> “However, the value of those bequests will grow much more slowly than of late,
> due to the uncertain economic situation. From 2017 to 2021 the average residual
> bequest (now worth around £46,600*) will grow by just 1.3% p.a., compared to 2.8%
> p.a. over the five years 2012 to 2016”.

Rob Cope, Director of Remember A Charity said:

> “These potential scenarios from Legacy Foresight are hugely insightful and will
> help charities to plan for a range of eventualities as the impact of Brexit unfolds.
> While there might be little the sector can do to influence the wider economy, 
> we can however continue to work together to grow legacy income by normalising 
> charitable giving in Wills. Only by helping charities make more noise about legacies
> and their impact, can we ensure that legacy giving will become an even more important
> income stream to the sector for decades to come.”

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