# Roads… where we’re going we don’t need roads

- Link: https://fundraising.co.uk/2015/04/17/roads-where-were-going-we-dont-need-roads/
- Published: 2015-04-17T16:15:22+01:00
- Author: Lucy Gower

**This is what Dr Emmett Brown said to Marty McFly in the Spielberg movie Back to
the Future before they climbed into the DeLorean time machine heading for 21 October
2015.**

Released in 1985 BI (before internet), [Back to the Future](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back_to_the_Future)
painted a picture of what life would be like this year. It predicted no need for
roads as we would be jetting around in flying cars; for shorter journeys ‘the youth’
would be hovering around on hover boards, electronics would be part of clothing,
enabling, amongst other things for shoelaces to tie themselves, as well as components
in other household items, like self emptying rubbish bins.

There was even a [portable thumb unit](http://backtothefuture.wikia.com/wiki/Portable_thumb_unit)
to collect donations (Marty was asked to give $100 to save the Hill Valley Courthouse)
and other transactions (Fred the taxi driver had one to collect fares).

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![Terry and Portable Thumb Unit in Back to the Future II. Source: Backtothefuture.
wikia.com](https://wfay6x.infiniteuploads.cloud/2015/04/portable-thumb-unit-and-
terry-back-to-the-future-two.webp)

Terry and Portable Thumb Unit in Back to the Future II. Source: Backtothefuture.
wikia.com

 

## We simply cannot predict the future

The Back to the Future team may have predicted some themes, but they didn’t get 
it totally right. And that is exactly the point. We simply cannot predict the future.

Last week I was at [ecampaigning forum](http://ecflive.fairsay.com/community/) (
ecf), where digital campaigners, volunteers and fundraisers gathered expectantly
at Oxford’s Keble College hoping for the answer to the next big thing. Alas, the
surroundings were more reminiscent of a scene from a Harry Potter film, and delegates
had more hope of finding a werewolf-slaying silver bullet than the answers to the
many and varied problems that NGOs are facing today – and will face in the future.

![Howard Lake on the Portable Thumb Unit at ECF, Keble College, Oxford, April 2015](
https://wfay6x.infiniteuploads.cloud/2015/04/howard-lake-keble-college-oxford-e-
campaigning-forum-april2015.webp)

Howard Lake on the Portable Thumb Unit at ECF, Keble College, Oxford, April 2015.
Photo: Lucy Gower

Listening to sessions about the future of digital fundraising, campaigning, volunteering,
communications and marketing, I was struck by just how fast the digital world is
moving. A year ago we had no experience of the power of viral campaigns including#
nomakeupselfie and #icebucketchallenge. Today, in response, some of the forward 
thinking charities have created roles with the sole remit of spotting and acting
on opportunities outside of their organisations that are yet to happen and as yet
unknown.

That in itself is a massive change in approach, but an important one as the pace
of technological development is not going to slow down any time soon. The things
you take for granted today; your job, the skills you need, the lifestyle you lead
will change over the next few years. In fact you can probably think of some of these
changes you have already experienced in the last 10 years.

Many of the most popular jobs in 2015, including ‘digital fundraiser’ and ‘app developer’
didn’t exist 10 years ago and the skills needed today to do these new jobs continue
to change too. This means that to thrive, you too must change. You too have to be
able to understand the environment that you live and work in, spot opportunities
and constantly adapt.

## Fundraising is changing

Within fundraising, as the world changes around us, the most effective ways to fundraise
are also changing. Opinions on best practice have shifted and will continue to do
so. For example;

* Three years ago a like on Facebook was something to rejoice over, then months 
later it became a bad thing, labelled ‘slactivism’, liking something was seen as
an alternative for other support, like making a donation. There was a fear that 
if a person merely liked something they may consider that they had done their bit,
and their bit had made no impact.

Unicef Sweden ran a ‘likes won’t save lives’ campaign to help communicate this message.

**Editor’s note:** _the video previously embedded here (https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=MfzHczHKRIc) is no longer available._

 

Last month JustGiving’s [Slacktivism; monster or myth](http://blog.justgiving.com/slacktivism-monster-or-myth-a-justgiving-whitepaper/)
report highlighted evidence that if someone likes something they are more likely
to go on and do something else for that cause. A like is no longer viewed as an 
alternative for donating but a good thing, (hurray) a first step in a longer relationship
with an organisation or cause that a person cares about.

* The perceived wisdom is that people have no time to look at emails so to make 
them as short as possible. Several delegates at ecf commented how they had tested
longer email copy with great success, they thought long copy was different, stood
out and was more meaningful than the other hundreds of short emails that people 
are bombarded with every day.

They cited a trend that was working for them involving more in depth, informative,
documentary journalism style of copy.

* The same applies to video content; it is commonly believed that you should make
your video short, for example less than two minutes. Then along comes [Kony ](https://www.fundraising.co.uk/2012/03/12/praise-kony-2012-viral-video/)
as long ago as 2012 with a 30 minute film that has received over 100 million views
and 1.4 million likes on YouTube. There appears to be a trend for more journalistic
video content, yet at the same time anything with a kitten in a bow tie gets viewed
a lot too.

Unpicking and understanding what is happening right now can seem baffling so why
there is any expectation to know what the next big thing is, is beyond me.

> when it comes to predicting likely future trends we need to be in the present

What is happening right now provides indications about the future I’m not saying
that it is not important to learn from the past, but when it comes to predicting
likely future trends we need to be in the present.

Just look around you, we all have phones, most people have a smart phone, a Tecmark
survey in 2014 found [the average user picks up their smartphone 221 times a day](http://www.tecmark.co.uk/smartphone-usage-data-uk-2014/).
According to Digital Spy [three quarters of us use our phones on the toilet](http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/fun/news/a464219/75-percent-of-people-use-their-phone-on-the-toilet.html),
and I think its more than that because that figure does not account for those of
us that choose not to admit it in a survey.

What are the trends, that haven’t affected you yet? What are the regulatory, economic,
legal, technological and social issues that are likely to affect your charity in
the future? For example, if consumers are purchasing more by mobile, if this trend
continues to grow, what impact would this have on your fundraising? If you knew 
that mobile was going to be the only method of payment in the future, what would
you need to do to be ready in one year from now? If house prices or interest rates
are going up what does that mean for your supporters? How will the rise in interest
rates affect your donors, your beneficiaries or your suppliers?

Get into the habit of spotting what is happening by keeping up with social, economic
and environmental trends. All things are connected so what is happening today will
inform future trends. Read newspapers and magazines. Read popular blogs. Watch TV,
not just the news, but popular shows.

![Lego's Back to the Future car box - image: John Lewis](https://wfay6x.infiniteuploads.
cloud/2015/04/lego-back-to-the-future-car-john-lewis-1200x1200.avif)

Image: John Lewis

## Big data

Consider Big data; defined as extremely large data sets, for example from phones,
credit cards, televisions, computers that may be analyzed to reveal patterns, trends,
and associations, especially relating to human behaviour and interactions. Whether
you find it helpful or creepy this new use of data opens up some incredible insights
and opportunities;

* Google has analyzed search terms clustered by region in the US to predict flu 
outbreaks faster than hospital administration records.

* Target in the US infamously used an algorithm, that tracked purchases of items
such as unscented lotions to detect when women were pregnant and offered discounts
to them.

* Propeller Health in the US conducted tests with asthmatic school children. A GPS
sensor in their inhalers recorded their location whenever they used them. The aggregated
data showed proximity to a refinery aggravated their asthma. A simple solution of
taking a different route significantly reduced the incidences of asthma.

## Do something – test, learn, adapt

You have to test your fundraising ideas out, it is the only way that you will know
what works now, I’ve seen organsiations take years to develop a digital strategy,
which has become obsolete before its finished. Prototype, test, adapt, pilot, adapt
and learn from real data that is relevant to your unique situation.

CRUK take this approach, they test different ways to engage people, for example 
[Dryathlon ](https://www.fundraising.co.uk/2013/05/24/most-innovative-fundraising-campaign/)
which was piloted in 2013, is now going from strength to strength based on feedback
and data. CRUK have also piloted the first [contactless payment mechanism](https://www.fundraising.co.uk/2015/01/22/cruk-trials-contactless-giving-through-the-charity-shop-window/)
in the window of just four of their shops.

Macmillan take the same approach, they have launched 10 new fundraising products
over the past 2 years which have raised millions of pounds to help the 2.5 million
people in the UK currently living with cancer. Macmillan know that they cannot just
do the same things with the same people if they are going to continue to grow.

Both CRUK and Macmillan are taking a serious and structured approach to innovation;
testing, learning and adapting to change, because they both know it is the only 
way they are going to achieve their mission.

## No thanks we are great doing the same things we did last year

![Chart from Lloyds UK Business Digital Index 2015.](https://www.fundraising.co.
uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/lloyds-business-digital-2015-irrelevance-to-charities.
jpg)

Plenty of small businesses and charities still see digital as irrelevant, according
to Lloyds UK Business Digital Index 2015.

YET a [recent report from Lloyds](https://resources.lloydsbank.com/insight/uk-business-digital-index/)
shows that

* Over half of charities do not believe that having a website would help increase
their funding

* A quarter of SMEs and charities see digital as irrelevant to them.

* 58% of charities are without basic digital skills

If you want to survive you cannot kid yourself that digital is not important. Doing
the same activities that you have always done in a fast changing world will not 
continue to get you the same results.

If you are putting your head in the sand about the importance of digital then be
prepared to stand shoulder to shoulder with the likes of Kodak, Blockbuster and 
HMV who, sadly no longer exist.

Where we are going we might not need roads, or we might, the point is we don’t know
unless we understand the world that we are living in today and test our ideas. And
in a world where there are more mobiles than people and a significant increase in
technology we cannot pretend that digital does not affect us or is not important.

We must continuously test and learn, we don’t have time to hypothesise about what
the next big thing might be in the future – the future is heading towards us at 
hyper speed and we have to move fast to keep up with it.

Doc Emmett Brown and his dog Einstein will be wandering about from 21 October, so
look out for them. They didn’t get it quite right, but in a fast changing world,
there is still time.

Thank you to Howard Lake, Stephen Speilberg, Marty McFly, Dr Emmett Brown and Einstein
for the inspiration for this blog post.

_**Lucy Gower** blogs at[ Lucy Innovation](http://www.lucyinnovation.co.uk)._